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In the Friday edition of the Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, I’ll reach into the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course give out the happenings over at 4for4.
*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!
Q: Who do you prefer for the rest of the season, Kyle Pitts or Sam LaPorta? - Kyle G.
It’s been very exciting to see LaPorta buck the historical trend of rookie TEs faltering in the fantasy football world. He’s on track to break Mike Ditka’s record of 1,067 receiving yards by a rookie, which Kyle Pitts fell just short of (1,026) back in 2021. Speaking of Pitts, he’s averaging a brutal 4.7 half-PPR points this season on an offense that just won’t use him in the most productive way for our purposes. Set him free to be someone else’s headache and ride with LaPorta for the remainder of the season.
Q: What are your Top 5 sports movies of all time? - @Carlg1000
Wow, I only get five? That’s tough but I will fire them off from the top of my head with little thought, or else I will flip-flop for days.
The Longest Yard (OG with Burt Reynolds)
Tin Cup
Wildcats
Happy Gilmore
Hoosiers
Q: I have a lot of Week 5 Byes coming up, including Dicker and the Browns defense! How do you typically deal with those positions when Bye Weeks come around? - Eddie J.
I stream both kicker and team defenses from week to week but it can get stickier when you find one or both that are working for you. I will rarely advise anyone to hold onto a kicker unless you have a very deep bench. Cameron Dicker is currently K16 on the season and you will be able to replace his output with some waiver wire love. For Week 5 specifically, check into Riley Patterson vs. CAR, Matt Gay vs. TEN, or Joey Slye vs. CHI.
When it comes to defenses, having a unit that is playing very well with a good upcoming schedule may be worth holding onto through a bye week. The Browns are the No. 8 defense through three contests but do have a rougher road right after their break with tilts against the 49ers, Colts, Seahawks, and Cardinals who currently rank 3rd, 14th, 7th, and 1st respectively in DST schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. There are likely better matchup-based options out there to stream but if that makes you uneasy, I’m sure you have an underperforming positional player you can drop to add a Week 5 DST to get you through. Look at the Commanders vs. CHI or Indy vs. TEN.
Q: Panicking Josh Jacobs manager here. Do I try to sell him or keep him and pray he gets in the endzone? - ThadZee
🔮 Good times are ahead for Jacobs and those who continue to roster him. He has a 79% snap share (6th among RBs) and is dominating the workload in the backfield for the Raiders with 18.3 touches per game, compared to 2.0 for Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah with 1.0. Jacobs has seven red zone attempts through three games which is the most for any RB without a score thus far in 2023. We have to remember that he missed training camp and the preseason while holding out and likely needed some playing time to catch up.
Let’s also harken back to last season when Jacobs averaged just 9.5 half-PPR points with zero end-zone trips in the first three weeks, then went off to the tune of 19.5 fantasy points per game with 12 total touchdowns from Week 4 on. Stay patient with the Vegas RB, his time is coming.
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Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.
Christian Kirk Over 50.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Also: 49.5 -125 at DK and CZRS, -116 at Propbuilder and -110 at Bet365
Zay Jones is reportedly a “longshot” to play this week which means we will get Kirk as a near full-time player in two wide receiver sets and the slot receiver in three receiver sets that led to him running a route on 94% of Jags dropbacks last week. He played a season-high 86% of snaps last week without Zay Jones and has 51+ receiving yards in both of his last two games where he saw 80%+ of the snaps (110 & 54 receiving yards).
He now draws a prime matchup against the Falcons who are oozing production via the slot, allowing a gaudy 9.3 yards per target. Kirk still ran more than 55% of his routes from the slot last week with Jones out. With Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense ripe for a bounceback, Kirk should be one of many beneficiaries and cruise over this number. We have him projected for 65 receiving yards and most other projections have him at 60+ as well.
Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Hopefully, you are all still alive in your survival pools heading into Week 4. Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week.
The Holy Trinity Explained:
Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)
Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)
Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)
Let’s get to this week’s picks:
⛏️ San Francisco 49ers vs. Cardinals - (Most Popular)
Point Spread: -14.0
Win Odds: 88% (1st)
Pick Popularity: 36% (1st)
Future Value: 3rd
↞ Kansas City Chiefs @ Jets - (Second-Highest Spread)
Point Spread: -10.0
Win Odds: 80% (2nd)
Popularity: 19% (3rd)
Future Value: 4th
🦅 Philadelphia Eagles vs. Commanders - (Third-Highest Odds)
Point Spread: -8.5
Win Odds: 77% (3rd)
Popularity: 20% (2nd)
Future Value: 9th
⚡️ Los Angeles Chargers vs. Raiders- (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)
Point Spread: -6
Win Odds: 70% (5th)
Popularity: 6% (4th)
Future Value: 10th
Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.
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