🏝️ Week 5 Survivor Picks

We made it to Friday! Last night’s contest was a doozy in the fantasy point department, let’s hope the rest of the week pans out the same. In today’s newsletter, I dive into the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Q: Would you trade James Cook for Mike Evans in HPPR? Have Bijan, Kyren, Achane, Cook, Pierce, Zack Moss at RB and Puka, Garrett Wilson, Addison, And Tank Dell at WR. Is this a fair trade or would you trade a different RB for Evans? The other team is 0-4 and has Evans on a bye this week. -SteelDan

A: I actually think this is a fair trade. You are in the rare position of having a solid running stable and do need some help at WR. My first inclination would be to try to unload Pierce first and see if they bite, if not Cook for Evans works.

Q: I have Justin Herbert on a bye this week and have been carrying Jordan Love to get to Week 5. Should I keep Love after this week just in case or drop him? - Logan B.

For me, it depends on the rest of your league. If people are QB hoarders and you would be in a very bad spot if something were to happen to Herbert, then keep Love. However, if most teams are only carrying one I would let him go since you likely won’t ever sit Herbert based on matchups and would only start Love in the event of an injury.

Q: I drafted Justin Tucker since he’s usually the GOAT kicker. I’m scared to drop him but he’s not doing much to help my team. What should I do? - RyannO

Tucker is K27 on the season with just 6.25 fantasy points per game thus far. Yes, he’s usually a top-5 kicker but if he’s not serving you this season, you need to maximize points and let him go. The Ravens don’t have the easiest schedule on the horizon for kicker points so looking at streaming options from week to week is something to consider. You can also try to trade him in a package deal based on his name alone to a manager not paying too much attention this season.

Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

Bet: Desmond Ridder under 184.5 passing yards (ATL, -114 at FD, -115 DK, MGM, CZRs)

Ridder has had a rocky start to the season and there are already calls for him to be benched for Taylor Heinicke. That likely doesn't happen here but he does have a sneaky tough matchup against the Houston Texans. The Texans are a massive run funnel ranking 7th in pass DVOA and 28th in run DVOA. They have similar splits in EPA. They also rank 10th in explosive pass rate allowed, averaging just 6.53 yards per attempt allowed. Just one QB has cleared 175 yards against the Texans so far and that was Trevor Lawrence and the Jags who allowed a ton of quick touchdowns and faced a massive negative game script.

The Falcons will be able to stay on schedule here with the running game and when they do pass, it won't be easy. Play to 180.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Hopefully, you are all still rolling in your survivor pools heading into Week 5. Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week.

The Holy Trinity Explained:

• Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

• Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

• Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Let’s get to this week’s picks:

🐬 Miami Dolphins vs. Giants- (Biggest Spread)

• Point Spread: -12.0

• Win Odds: 85% (1st)

• Pick Popularity: 38% (2nd)

• Future Value: 4th

🦁 Detroit Lions vs. Panthers - (Most Popular)

• Point Spread: -10.0

• Win Odds: 77% (3rd)

• Popularity: 39% (1st)

• Future Value: 6th

 🦬 Buffalo Bills vs. Jaguars - (Biggest Future Value)

• Point Spread: -5.5

• Win Odds: 69% (4th)

• Popularity: 4% (4th)

• Future Value: 1st

🦅 Philadelphia Eagles @ Rams - (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)

• Point Spread: -4

• Win Odds: 66% (5th)

• Popularity: 1% (7th)

• Future Value: 7th

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 5 Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

Trader's Alley Week 5: Players to Buy, Hold, and Sell

O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 5

2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 5

Week 5 IDP Waiver Wire: Pickups & Targets

Week 5 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan

Week 5 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

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