🏝️ Week 6 Survivor Picks

After last night’s not-so-exciting TNF contest, it’s time to dive into the rest of the weekend’s games. In this Friday edition of the Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, I’ll reach into the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Q: I traded Rhamondre (Stevenson)and (Jahan) Dotson for (Jaylen) Waddle. Thoughts? .5 ppr. Dotson was bench and Rhamondre is getting subbed out for Javonte. - @m-abs29

A: All three of these guys are underperforming so far in 2023, which is a bummer. I do prefer Waddle for the rest of the season, as I think he’s part of a better offense, and the points will come. Sadly Dotson is probably droppable at this point and you’ll likely take your lumps with Williams as you have been with Stevenson.

 Q: Crazy to consider Stafford over Herbert given the matchups this week or should Herbert do well against the Cowboys? - SteelDan

A: Most of the time I advise people to not get cute and start their stars. In this instance, I can understand why you’d want to roll with Stafford over Herbert, and don’t think it’s crazy. Stafford gets a Cardinals defensive unit that is giving up the most fantasy points to QBs on a weekly basis (24.5). Dallas is much tougher in that department (13.4) and Herbert is dealing with a finger injury. They are very close this week, go with whoever feels right to you.

Q: I drafted Darren Waller in a league where people tend to keep more than one TE. Should I stick with him, try to trade him, or just move on? -Travis S.

A: You can certainly try to deal him in a package with some of your depth at another position to get a more stable TE, but you may be stuck with Waller. He’s not droppable with TE such a shallow position, and there is likely no one on your waiver wire with more opportunity. The good news is that he finally saw double-digit targets last week and was the TE8 in half-PPR scoring. Let’s just hope he’s just heating up.

Together With Mojo

Mojo Fantasy: The Fantasy App That Lets You Make Moves DURING THE GAME

Download Mojo Fantasy today and use my code BETSPERTS for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Are you tired of being stuck with a bad pick in fantasy? With Mojo Fantasy, you can buy and sell player props LIVE, all game long. That's right, you can make moves after the game starts! So if your player gets off to a hot start, you can cash in. Or if they start to struggle, you can cut your losses.

It's the only fantasy app that gives you total control.

Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

DeVonta Smith under 54.5 receiving yards (-114 at FD, 53.5 -115 DK/Builder/etc)

Smith is coming off a bad game and I'm not ready to buy a bounce back here. Smith runs nearly 80% of his routes on the outside and leads his team in snaps at RWR. This means he will mostly draw Sauce Gardner (91% LCB) and when he doesn't, Smith will draw DJ Reed (cleared concussion protocol yesterday). I don't think the Eagles will skew pass-heavy here and when they do pass, it will likely be to attack the middle of the field. Through 5 weeks the Jets have allowed two receivers to exceed 50 yards in Ceedee Lamb and Stefon Diggs...and most of their damage was done over the middle. I would play this down to 50 yards.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Hopefully, you’re still in the mix in your survivor pools and doing well in those pick’em contests. Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week.

The Holy Trinity Explained:

• Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

• Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

• Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Let’s get to this week’s picks:

🐬Miami Dolphins vs. Panthers - (Tied for Highest Spread)

• Point Spread: -14.0

• Win Odds: 88% (1st)

• Pick Popularity: 26% (2nd)

• Future Value: 3rd

🦬 Buffalo Bills vs. Giants- (Most Popular)

• Point Spread: -14.0

• Win Odds: 88% (1st)

• Popularity: 30% (1st)

• Future Value: 2nd

⛏️ San Francisco 49ers @ Browns - (Biggest Future Value)

• Point Spread: -7.0

• Win Odds: 75% (4th)

• Popularity: 2% (6th)

• Future Value: 1st

🐯 Cincinnati Bengals vs. Seahawks - (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)

• Point Spread: -2.5

• Win Odds: 58% (12th)

• Popularity: 1% (10th)

• Future Value: 11th

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 6 Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

Trader's Alley Week 6: Players to Buy, Hold, and Sell

O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 6

Week 6 Pick Advice For NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pools (2023)

Week 6 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan

Week 6 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and use JEN10 for 10% off any subscription