🥥 Week 7 Survivor Picks

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TGIF everyone, we made it through another week! In today’s Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter, I’ll open the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

*Every Friday will feature a mailbag segment so if you have any questions you want answered, please send them to [email protected] by Thursday afternoon at 3:00 PM ET. Thanks!

Q: Who is one player you feel you missed on this season (I know it’s only been six games)? - Leo S.

A: I’ll give you one in each direction. I really thought Antonio Gibson would be the perfect Zero-RB target with Eric Bieniemy in town. I figured he’d take on the role Jerick McKinnon had for KC when Bieniemy was OC, but instead, he’s averaging just 4.8 half-PPR points per game as RB59. A miss I had by fading them this offseason is Travis Etienne. He’s the clear RB1 for the Jags and I really thought Doug Pederson would implement more of a split after drafting rookie Tank Bigsby.

Q: Would you hold a kicker during their bye week who’s really performing, for example, Brandon Aubrey this week? - @Marsall99

A: That depends on the size of your bench. If you have someone on the end who is expendable and you don’t want to deal with streaming kicker, then by all means keep Aubrey. If holding onto him means you’re dropping a player who could be a difference-maker down the stretch, then let him go and hope you either get him back next week or don’t stress, there are plenty of kicker points to be had via streaming.

Q: I’ve heard you say that rookies show up later in the season. Who are the best rookies to hang onto from here on out in the hopes they hit? - Aaron B.

Here are my favorite rookies to roster moving forward, leaving out Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, and De’Von Achane because they have already proven startable in 2023.

• Jahmyr Gibbs

• Roschon Johnson

• Tyjae Spears

• C.J. Stroud

• Jaleel McLaughlin

• Tank Dell

• Josh Downs

• Rashee Rice

• Luke Musgrave

• Tank Bigsby

• Jonathan Mingo

• Jayden Reed

• Marvin Mims

• Jake Moody

• Brandon Aubrey

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Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

Gus Edwards under 44.5 rushing yards (-115 MGM, DK, Builder, -110 B365, 44.5 Rivers) 

The Lions are yet to allow a single running back to eclipse 43 yards so far this season and have been absolutely dominant in the running game. The most yards to a back so far is when Kenneth Walker had 43 yards on 17 carries. They are allowing just 3.08 yards per carry so far and are 5th in rushing success rate allowed. They are top-5 in both yards before and after contact per attempt as well. Edwards led the team in carries but is still in a time share with Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell figures to play a role sooner than later. The last three weeks the Ravens have either seen massively positive game script or a great matchup and Edwards has barely squeaked over this total. Play to 42.5

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Hopefully, you’re still in the mix in your survivor pools and doing well in those pick’em contests. Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week.

The Holy Trinity Explained:

• Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

• Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

• Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Let’s get to this week’s picks:

🦬 Buffalo Bills @ Patriots - (Highest Spread)

• Point Spread: -8.5

• Win Odds: 79% (1st)

• Pick Popularity: 16% (2nd)

• Future Value: 4th

  🌊 Seattle Seahawks vs.Cardinals - (Most Popular)

• Point Spread: -7.5

• Win Odds: 76% (2nd)

• Popularity: 56% (1st)

• Future Value: 14th

🏴‍☠️ Las Vegas Raiders @ Bears- (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)

• Point Spread: -3

• Win Odds: 60% (6th)

• Popularity: 4% (5th)

• Future Value: 15th

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Gearing Up for the Fantasy Football Playoffs: Week 7

Week 7 Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

Trader's Alley Week 7: Players to Buy, Hold, and Sell

O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 7

Week 7 Pick Advice For NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pools (2023)

Week 7 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Week 7 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and use NFL50 for 50% off any subscription!