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The Deep Dive Fantasy Newsletter is now coming to your inbox seven days a week throughout the NFL season, and I, Ryan Noonan, have the honor of being your Sunday morning MC.
We’ll tackle start/sits, DFS, Survivor pool strategy, and a bit of betting as well.
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It’s a bye week for bye weeks, with all 32 NFL teams in action this week. We’re back to nine games in the early window, which is my least favorite thing if I were willing to complain about having too much football to watch at one time. But that sort of sounds crazy to complain about, so I’ll skip it.
I love this ‘Watchability’ index from our friends over at SumerSports. I have a two TV set up, so the challenge that nine early games present is that one game doesn’t get my eyeballs until Monday. YouTube TV’s quad-box setup allows me to clockwork orange eight games at once, and they’re telling me that New England and Miami should miss the cut. In my opinion, Miami’s offense is can’t-miss viewing, so I think the Jets and Giants or Falcons and Titans games are the front runners.
You can’t really stream running backs or wide receivers, but depending on your league’s size and settings, you can often stream quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses.
I was informed that in 2023, people still play in fantasy leagues with kickers (working to confirm this), but in the meantime, we also have kicker streaming options as well.
My 4for4 teammates cover that for you here.
Our resident projection and rankings alpha, John Paulsen, will bring you his favorite Sneaky Starts & Sleepers each week. He’s pretty good at the whole rankings and projections thing, so it’s worth your time.
If you’re new here, I want to let you in on a little secret.
Giving start/sit advice without context in a newsletter is my own private hell.
I don’t know your league size, scoring, or anything about you.
Despite that, I’m still going to give you a few names that are worth your attention this morning since today’s the day.
Here are a few names that are start-worthy today, even though you likely didn’t think so when you drafted them:
CJ Stroud (QB, Texans)
The Panthers struggle to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and might be without lone pass-rushing weapon Brian Burns in this one. Even with Burns active, this is a great spot for Stroud, who’s picked apart zone-heavy teams who lean primarily on single-high coverage in the back-half, and the Panthers are one of those teams.
Gus Edwards (RB, Ravens)
With the Ravens favored comfortably in Arizona, the Gus Bus is setup to see strong workload against a porous Cardinals rush defense.
Roschon Johnson (RB, Bears)
The Tyson Bagent experience got off to a rousing start last week against a teethless Raiders defense. Bagent got the ball out quickly, with an average depth of target of less than 3 yards(!). That’s not a sustainable recipe for winning football games, but it does bode well for Bears running backs, and I expect Johnson to handle a decent size workload and likely the long down and distances plus third down role for the Bears this week.
Tank Dell (WR, Texans)
I already mentioned the spot for Stroud, and while Nico Collins will likely continue to be his top target, Tank Dell’s not far behind. Dell’s target share should grow with Robert Woods out this week as well.
Josh Downs (WR, Colts)
Downs has at least five catches in Gardner Minshew's starts, with a 23% target per route run, and no corner has been targeted more this season than Saints' slot CB Alonte Taylor.
Trey McBride (TE, Cardinals)
It’s not a great matchup, but Trey McBride should see a spike in work with Zach Ertz moving to injured reserve.
Now for the bad news. You might have to start these guys, but if you have decent options, I’d SIT ‘EM. This is more a group of players where I’m lower than the consensus is this week:
Jared Goff (QB, Lions)
We’re sitting Jared Goff in a home game against the Raiders?!?! Look, I understand why you’d want to fire off Goff here, but the Lions LOVE to run the football regardless of game script, and in a spot where they should be in control late means fewer counting stats for Goff. If he doesn’t toss the early touchdown or two, it could be a big win for Detroit and a disappointing box score for Goff.
Najee Harris (RB, Steelers)
Jacksonville’s run defense is among the best in the league, so I want to avoid a back who’s splitting touches in a difficult matchup as an underdog. Unless Harris scores a touchdown, he will leave fantasy gamers disappointed today.
Miles Sanders (RB, Panthers)
This Panthers backfield is trending towards a 50/50 workload split, with Chuba Hubbard outperforming Miles Sanders while Sanders was nursing an injury. Sanders returns this week, but not to his fairly dominant early-season role.
For all the latest inactive news prior to kick-off, make sure you download the Fantasy Life App. In the race to push news out first, the Fantasy Life App wears the crown. It’s not even close.
Week 9
Bye’s continue with the Broncos, Jaguars, Lions and 49ers taking a seat. There are some valuable fantasy assets in there, so why wait until next week and battle your league mates on the waiver wire? Get ahead of things now.
Each league is different, as it relates to both waiver wire rules and roster depth, so it’s difficult to make recommendations, but you should be using the time before your wire closes to look ahead because most of your league mates aren’t. Jen covers more of that here.
It’s a two-way street around here. You can’t add anyone without cutting someone else, but fear not; we cover that for you here in this week’s Dead Weight Report.
Survivor Strategy
We have a few viable options on this board this week, assuming you’re still alive.
The Lions and Chargers are big home favorites in primetime this week, and are looking to bounce back after Week 7 losses. I’d probably start there.
Careful with a few of the road favorites this week. I’m not predicting wins for the Cardinals or Broncos this week, but the Ravens are willing to play to the level of their competition, while the Chiefs are likely set to deal with a bit of snow in Denver today. Weather is the great equalizer.
For more Survivor Pick thoughts, check this out.
Of course, we cover more than just traditional fantasy at 4for4. Our DFS team is second to none, so if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, we can help.
TJ, Daigle, and weekly guest Pat Kerrane will hold your hand through lineup construction, picks, values, and weekly game theory on our DFS flagship show, DFS MVP. Subscribe so you don’t miss it.
We also cover betting extensively as well. That’s mostly where you’ll find me, in case you miss me every non-Sunday because you’ve made it to the bottom of this newsletter, so clearly, we’re vibing.
If you haven’t subscribed to 4for4, the betting subscription is the best bang for your buck. It gets you access to everything on the site. Every article, tool, ranking, projection, you name it. It also gains you access to our subscriber Discord.
The Discord is the crown jewel of the subscription. You’ll have access to message all of the staff directly, and on the betting side, that’s where all of the official picks land first. It’s sort of a big deal.
Along with tons of written content, we also do two weekly betting shows, one on Wednesday afternoons to break down our favorite games of the week and another on Friday afternoons to discuss our favorite player prop bets of the week. That show is called “PROP DROP”.
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Bears at Chargers.
This is a great night to go out with your significant other, unless you’re a true sicko like me and want to take in every Tyson Bagent snap before it’s gone.
If you’re looking to play single-game DFS, Matt has you covered for this one.
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