🏝️ Week 8 Survivor Picks

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Fall Fridays are something special and we made it to another one! Today I’ll dive into the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Q: Who is one player you didn’t see coming in 2023? - Sonic27

A: There are a few but Adam Thielen stands out as a guy I never thought would be a fantasy WR1, let alone the WR6 in half-PPR points per game at over the halfway point of the fantasy season. We knew there was a path to volume as the season edged closer, but the 33-year-old’s output on that offense has been remarkable.

Q: Is the Bobo fever in Seattle warranted? -anonymous

A: I think we need to pay attention to Seattle WR Jake Bobo moving forward but not sure it’s at a fever level yet. He has two touchdowns on the season and has posted a 6-104-1 line over the last two games on seven targets. With both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett banged up, it may not be the worst idea to stash Bobo if you have the bench room.

Q: Who’s the one player you feel will be on the most championship teams this season? -Zac

A: As it stands right now, Tyreek Hill is separating himself from not only the WR crowd but all positional groups as well. His 22.9 half-PPR points per contest are the highest of any NFL players heading into Week 8 and he’s averaging 4.4 more points per game than the next-highest receiver (Stefon Diggs). At this pace, he could lead the WR group by close to 100 total fantasy points by the finals in Week 17. (Puka Nacua is also a key waiver wire winner but you only asked for one)

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Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

Najee Harris (PIT) under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 DK, -118 Builder, -119 CZRS)

Najee Harris continues to be a plodder averaging less than 4 yards per carry. He has cleared this number in half of his games so far but that has come against the Raiders, Rams, and Texans. He now faces the Jaguars who have been stellar on a play-to-play basis against the run. They are 2nd in early down success rate and are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Only 3 running backs have cleared 45 rushing yards against the Jaguars and all three are far superior running backs or in better situations than Harris. Also one of them was Alvin Kamara last week who got there on a random 15-yard draw play on a two-minute drill. I'm willing to bank on that not happening here, especially when Najee only has 56% of the carries on this team

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit 

Hopefully, you all are still rolling in your survivor pools. Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week.

The Holy Trinity Explained:

• Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

• Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

• Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Let’s get to this week’s picks:

🪺 Baltimore Ravens @ Cardinals - (Tied for Highest Spread)

• Point Spread: -9.5

• Win Odds:80% (2nd)

• Pick Popularity: 18% (2nd)

• Future Value: 8th

⚡️ LA Chargers vs. Bears - (Most Popular)

• Point Spread: -8.0

• Win Odds: 79% (4th)

• Popularity: 35% (1st)

• Future Value: 12th

🐬 Miami Dolphins vs. Patriots - (High Future Value)

• Point Spread: -9.5

• Win Odds: 80% (3rd)

• Popularity: 6% (5th)

• Future Value: 3rd

✈️ New York Jets @ Giants - (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)

• Point Spread: -3

• Win Odds: 58% (12th)

• Popularity: 1% (10th)

• Future Value: 22nd

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

Week 8 Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

Trader's Alley Week 8: Players to Buy, Hold, and Sell

O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 8

Week 8 Pick NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pools

Week 8 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Week 9 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report

Still haven’t become a subscriber to 4for4 yet? Enjoy access to our highly accurate rankings, valuable tools, actionable content, private discord server, and much more! Compare plans here www.4for4.com/plans and use NFL50 for 50% off any subscription!