đŸ„„ Week 9 Survivor Picks

Mailbag, Pool Picks and More!

Author

Jen of Deep Dive Fantasy
November 03, 2023

My condolences to those who started George Pickens last night, hopefully, it was PPR scoring so you at least got 1.90 points on his two-catch for -1 yard night. Yikes. In today’s newsletter, I’ll dive into the mailbag, get Connor Allen’s bet of the week, give out some survivor pool picks, and of course the happenings over at 4for4.

Q: With the [Darren] Waller news that he'll likely be out a few weeks, is he droppable? I was going to use him this week because of the [Sam] LaPorta bye but picked up [Trey] McBride to fill in. -BF

A: In your specific situation, he is droppable. Waller has a Week 13 bye so he may be kept off the field until then. Having LaPorta on your roster, you can say goodbye to the Giant with no issue. Others who may be streaming a less valuable TE may want to hang onto Waller since his fantasy playoff schedule is very favorable with contests against the Eagles and Rams in Weeks 16 and 17, defensive units ranked 22nd and 31st, respectively in TE aFPA.

Q: I have James Cook as my RB2 and am wondering if I should try to trade for Jahmyr Gibbs or stay put. - D. Angler

A: If you have the depth at WR to make a trade for Gibbs, then go for it but I think you’re likely okay with Cook in that RB2 spot. I know he feels like a disappointment with a few down games, but the Buffalo RB is currently the RB25 in half-PPR scoring per game (just outside of RB2 territory) and has a few soft defensive matchups on the horizon in Denver and New York in Weeks 10 and 11.

Every Friday 4for4’s Connor Allen will drop a bet he likes heading into the weekend’s games.

Cole Kmet under 33.5 receiving yards (-114 FD, playable at 32.5 elsewhere and fine down to 30)

The Bears are rolling out Tyson Bagent again and now face a unique challenge. The Saints play man defense at the third-highest rate in the league and have had a lot of success eating up bottom-tier passing games this season. The Bears absolutely qualify and I expect them to have a lot of trouble moving the ball here. Coming off a zero-target game two weeks ago, the Bears fed Kmet against the Chargers zone-heavy approach. Kmet also talked about in an interview last week how they were going to draw up a bunch for him. I don't expect that to be consistent here. Against zone defenses this season Cole Kmet is averaging over 9 yards per target. Against man defense, he is averaging just 2.74 yards per target this season and has just 27 yards total against man coverage. If we want a bigger sample, we saw him average 8.9 yards per target against zone and a little over 6 ypt against man coverage. Beyond his man/zone splits, the Saints have largely been great against opposing tight ends this season ranking 5th in DVOA against the position and allowing 34 yards per game to the position in total. While their competition hasn't been stiff, it's a multi-year trend for the Saints with the same defensive scheming.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Congrats if you’re still rolling in your survivor pools! Thanks to our friends at PoolGenius, I can easily use the “holy trinity” of analysis to make educated selections each week, and here are the selections for Week 9.

The Holy Trinity Explained:

  • Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)

  • Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)

  • Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)

Let’s get to this week’s picks:

đŸ¶ Cleveland Browns vs. Cardinals - (Most Popular)

  • Point Spread: -7.5

  • Win Odds:80% (2nd)

  • Pick Popularity: 47% (2nd)

  • Future Value: 12th

⚜ New Orleans Saints vs. Bears - (Highest Spread)

  • Point Spread: -9.0

  • Win Odds: 78% (1st)

  • Popularity: 39% (2nd)

  • Future Value: 8th

đŸȘč Atlanta Falcons vs. Vikings - (Value Pick)

  • Point Spread: -4.0

  • Win Odds: 65% (4th)

  • Popularity: 3% (3rd)

  • Future Value: 3rd

đŸȘș Baltimore Ravens vs. Seahawks - (Low Popularity w/ Decent Odds)

  • Point Spread: -6

  • Win Odds: 70% (3rd)

  • Popularity: 2% (4th)

  • Future Value: 15th

Here are some of the latest articles to post on 4for4.com. There’s always something new so be sure to keep dropping by.

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